The Pre-Mortem: How Reflection Before Action Prevents Major Mistakes
In leadership, we often talk about learning from our mistakes.
We do performance reviews, give feedback during 1-on-1’s, and do debriefs after a project or event in efforts to learn.
But what if you could learn from failures before they happen?
Enter the pre-mortem: a powerful reflection practice that helps teams identify potential pitfalls before an event happens or project launched.
The Problem With Traditional Project Planning
Most teams approach projects with optimism. They create detailed plans, assign responsibilities, and set deadlines with the best intentions. Yet studies show that 70% of projects fail to meet their original objectives.
Why? Because traditional planning suffers from several cognitive biases:
Optimism bias - We naturally underestimate the time and resources required
Confirmation bias - We look for evidence that supports our existing beliefs
Groupthink - Team members hesitate to voice concerns that go against the prevailing view
These biases don't just affect work projects. The same mental traps impact family decisions, ministry initiatives, and personal goals. We plan vacations, home renovations, or career moves with the same rose-colored glasses.
What is a Pre-Mortem
A pre-mortem flips traditional planning on its head. Rather than imagining success, you imagine failure—complete and total failure—and then work backward to identify what might have caused it.
Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist who developed the technique, describes it this way: "A pre-mortem is the hypothetical opposite of a post-mortem. A post-mortem in a medical setting allows health professionals and the family to learn what caused a patient's death. Everyone benefits except, of course, the patient. A pre-mortem in a business setting comes at the beginning of a project rather than the end, so the project can be improved rather than autopsied."
How Pre-Mortems Help
Pre-mortems leverage a psychological principle called "prospective hindsight"—imagining that an event has already occurred increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.
Here's why they're so effective:
They normalize dissent - By framing the exercise as "imagining failure," you give permission for team members to voice concerns without appearing negative or unsupportive
They engage different thinking - Instead of focusing on execution, pre-mortems activate critical thinking and scenario planning
They leverage collective intelligence - Everyone brings their unique perspective and experience to identify risks
They reduce the planning fallacy - Teams make more realistic estimates about time, resources, and obstacles
How To Do An Effective Pre-Mortem
Whether you're leading a work team or making an important family decision, here's how to implement this powerful reflection practice:
1. Set the stage
Begin by explaining that this is a judgment-free exercise designed to strengthen your plan, not criticize it. Then present the scenario: "Imagine we're six months in the future. Our project has failed completely. What happened?"
2. Write individually first
Give everyone 5-10 minutes to silently write down all the reasons they think the project failed. Encourage people to be specific and comprehensive.
3. Share and consolidate
Have each person share their top concerns without interruption. Record all items on a whiteboard or shared document, grouping similar items together.
4. Prioritize the risks
As a group, identify the 3-5 most significant risks based on likelihood and impact.
5. Develop prevention strategies
For each major risk, develop specific action plans to prevent it from occurring or minimize its impact if it does occur.
6. Assign ownership
Ensure every preventative measure has a clear owner who will be responsible for implementation.
7. Document and integrate
Incorporate these insights and action plans into your project plan.
Integrating Pre-Mortems Into Your Leadership Practice
To make pre-mortems part of your regular leadership routine:
Schedule them deliberately - Add pre-mortems to your project planning process, especially for high-stakes initiatives
Create psychological safety - Consistently reinforce that constructive criticism strengthens the team
Celebrate prevention - Recognize and reward team members who identify and address potential problems before they occur
Conduct mini-pre-mortems - Use abbreviated versions for smaller decisions or time-sensitive situations
Conclusion: Reflection Before Action
In a culture that often prioritizes action over reflection, the pre-mortem offers a powerful alternative. By creating intentional space to anticipate problems before they occur, you not only improve your chances of success but also build a team culture that values thoughtful consideration alongside decisive action.
The quality of your life and leadership depend on the quality of your relationships—this is as practical as how you plan. Pre-mortems help you engage with potential futures in a way that informs and improves your present actions.
Try conducting a pre-mortem for your next significant project or decision. You might be surprised at how clearly you can see potential pitfalls when you take the time to look for them—and how much more confident you feel moving forward with a plan that addresses them proactively.
